Charts
Starting 2022, we will no longer post charts for swing-trading activities. This represent a shift in our portfolio, reducing the trading frequency and focusing more on building long-term, core positions.
Embedded Files
A Reversal Trade in Disney (DIS)
30 Dec 2021 9:35 AM EST
Shares of Disney are also breaking out of the wedge formed at the low, also a double bottom formation here. With shares being significantly down from the highs, it is reasonable to expect a bounce at least to the gap in the 165 - 170 area.
A Reversal Trade in PayPal (PYPL)
30 Dec 2021 9:30 AM EST
Shares of PYPL are breaking out of the wedge formed at the low here. With shares being significantly down from the highs, it is reasonable to expect a bounce here at least to the gap in the 200-210 area.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Look Ready To Advance Again
22 Dec 2021 8:00 AM EST
Status: closed near all time high for profit
Shares of AMD are forming a bullish wedge pattern at all time high here. We had a similar formation back in August - October which delivered a huge gain. This consolidation is not as long and not supported by big volume as the former, therefore traders need to tread lightly.
Traders can enter after a decisive break out from this wedge. Shares are holding Ichimoku Cloud support. Initial target is to all-time high near $170.
There's Still Gas In The Tank Of Ford (F)
10 Dec 2021 5:00 PM EST
Status: hold
I love this expression, it has so many meanings. But mainly, we intend it to mean that the stock of Ford can still go higher.
Month-long consolidation in the $19 - $20.8 area has finally ended with Ford (F) breaking out above the $20.8 today, with a decisive intraday 9.5% move.
We'd like to see Ford shares hold the 21$ area. A move towards 25$ is in the works, but we don't know when.
MACD is only starting to curl, indicating momentum is just starting to pick up. RSI with Bollinger Bands is not at the upper band yet, indicating there's still more room for shares to run.
Let's Go To Starbucks (SBUX) Again For The Holidays
7 Nov 2021 9:30 AM EST
Status: closed for a loss
Classic formation that we have worked and succeeded many times before. Sitting at volume shelf (forgot to include in the chart), found support at 200 day MA, and most importantly breaking out of the downtrend that has been in place since the summer. We are taking this position back to the 117.3$ level first, then back to the previous high of $125.
Is LI Auto (LI) On The Edge Of A Big Ral-LI?
29 Nov 2021 5:00 PM EST
Status: closed with a loss
LI Auto (LI) is a Chinese start-up electric automaker. We have been playing in this sector through NIO, but shares of NIO has been grossly underperforming. The chart of LI Auto (LI) looks better so we would like to bring this to your attention.
LI is trading above its 200-day MA, also above its 20-day MA, indicating strong momentum. It is also holding above a high volume profile. Today it attempted to break-out of a one-year downtrend, although the attempt doesn't look too successful (red candle with an upper wick). "RSI with Bollinger Bands" and "William%R" indicators suggest shares may be oversold at this area, so expect some regurgitation here. We want to see a decisive break above the highlighted downtrend before going long. Stop loss would be under recent low of $29. Target would be all-time high of $47.
This is a trade based on technicals. We do not like unprofitable Chinese automaker as an investment.
General Motors (GM) No Longer Looks General
11 Nov 2021 11:00 AM EST
Status: closed
We wrote about this trade in GM on 5 Oct. We're still holding the position and would like to provide an update/ reiteration.
The charts of GM indicates there's much more room to the upside. We see shares of GM trade to at least 2021's high of 65$, and then higher. MA200 is right below it, and since shares of GM has been battling this line for almost half of 2021, we don't see shares revisiting this line anytime soon. It has also cleared through a high volume profile area, and there is nothing above it to act as resistance. RSI indicator with Bollinger Bands also does not indicate we're overbought. Lastly, win rate for November is 80% with data going back 6 years.
All in all, we're willing to take shares up to 65$, take 1/3 profit, and then target 70$.
Can gains in Micron (MU) be macro? Let's look at this chart
8 Nov 2021 12:00 PM EDT
Status: breakout successfully, hold to the high of near 100$
We are looking shares of Micron Technologies (MU), a semiconductor manufacturer, breaking out from a downtrend which has been in place since spring.
We see a near term move of shares from here to test the 200-day Moving Average, which also coincides with a high volume price area (histogram on the right). This would mean a move from current price of $74 to $80, a ~8% gain. In the long term (we're less confident about) we could see shares trade up to all time high of $96. But we're willing to take shares to $80 for now.
Can this electric vehicle maker electrify your trading profits? Providing an update on the chart of NIO.
8 Nov 2021 8:00 AM EDT
Status 18 Nov 2021: closed after failed to hold MA200
We posted about the breakout in NIO on 22nd Oct, also warning about the resistance level. So far, that level indeed has been acting as resistance, and NIO had not made significant progress until late last week.
We now see shares of NIO above the 200-day moving average, and also have been holding this high-volume price area well. A successful move above $46 will strengthen the breakout and can see shares advance to the next high-volume price area of 60$ (expected to be resistance as well).
Lastly, to end on a supportive note, we have determined that NIO has a win rate of 100% in November. This is data compiled since NIO went public in 2018.
Will Wynn Deliver A Win?
5 Nov 2021 3:30 PM EDT
Status: closed at breakeven for other opportunities
Shares of Wynn Resorts (WYNN) certainly have had a terrible 2021, after a slew of negative news about Covid and Chinese regulations in Macau. We're going to try to bottom-pick this stock here with this trade. Shares broke out of the downtrend (in green), and has room to run to the 200-day Moving Average (red line).
Is It Time For Boeing To Fly?
5 Nov 2021 3:30 PM EDT
Status 19 Nov 2021: closed after failure to hold MA200.
We've tried (and failed) this type of trade in Boeing (BA) many times before, but sure, let's try for the nth time. On the fundamental side, Boeing expects B737Max re-certification in China to be over by the end of this year, which will be an appropriate catalyst for the stock to run higher.
On the technical side, Boeing has broken out of the wedge that it has been in since 2021. Really an underperforming stock of the year.
2 things we need to be cautious about this trade: i) BA stock needs to clear this huge supply area (volume profile on the right of the chart). Every big node is a resistance, representing a lot of shares owned at this price and expect sellers. There's mud from here until 260$. ii) The 200 day moving average is right above where we are. BA needs to clear this line before we can be aggressive.
Is Starbucks About To Give You Some Bucks? Look At The Chart.
5 Nov 2021 3:30 PM EDT
Status Update: 11 Nov: close out the trade with a loss, as shares drop below 200 day MA.
We identified a break-out in shares of Starbucks (SBUX). Don't have to be too complicated, just 3 factors: i) breakout of downtrend, ii) move up from MA200 (red line) and iii) move up from volume shell (which we've seen how effective this is). To the upside, there's really no resistance that we could identify, so we will take shares to all time high.
What A Win We've Had in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). But It's Time To Get Out.
5 Nov 2021 3:30 PM EDT
Shares of AMD traded up to 140$ at one point. In the post last week, we said we were willing to take this up to 130$, so obviously we were being pigs for a whopping 10$. We've gotten out of the AMD trade now because shares look overextended. To look back at the money we've made in AMD, we started really at the intersection between the green and red line, and what a win!
Is Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Advancing Forward? Providing an update.
1 Nov 2021 9:30 AM EDT
Status: succeeded, all profits taken, out of the trade.
Shares of AMD advanced to all-time high of ~120$ as we forecasted in our post on 15 Oct 2021. Also as we forecasted, shares are seeing some resistance here.
We want to see shares consolidating around this all-time high area. One important level we want to watch is the 115$ area, expected to be support. Another crucial level is 105$ area, which is expected to be strong support given high volume profile here.
Traders can add light positions on down-days, using the 115$ and 105$ as stop losses. We're willing to take our position to $130.
Bitcoin (BTC) - Is it time to take another bite?
29 Oct 2021 12:15 PM EDT
Status: hold
Bitcoin also looks good here. Breakout to all-time high (66000$) was followed by a sell-off, but the sell-off was well-contained. We now have a high volume profile in the 55000$ area serving as a launchpad to expel this upward. We think 100000$ by year's end. Again, this is trading, not investing.
Etherium (ETH) - Is it time to go to the ether?
29 Oct 2021 12:10 PM EDT
Status: hold
We have never posted charts in crypto, but this chart looks so good that we want to direct you to it. Cup and handle, ascending triangle breakout, you name it! ETH has just reached all time high, and we think momentum will take it to 6000$ by year's end. This is trading, not investing.
Nucor (NUE) - Demands for steel continue to be strong
29 Oct 2021 11:10 AM EDT
Status: hold
We started a trading position in Nucor (NUE) a couple days ago, and today we doubled that position. Breakout of downtrend, re-test, and also volume profile is serving as a launchpad for this stock. If you check the Ichimoku Cloud, this stock has just peaked above it, indicating strong momentum and further upside to be desired. Moving averages are also in desired order (MA20> MA100> MA200). Stop loss under $100, and we're willing to take this up to all-time high of $130.
Ford - Update
29 Oct 2021 11:00 AM EDT
Status: PT of 19$ hit, most profits taken.
So far, Ford has been doing exactly what we're predicting (see latest post on 15 Oct 2021. Even though Ford is sitting at multi-year high (certainly highest this year), and we advice to take some profits here already (at least 25% off position off the table), we think there's still a bit of juice to squeeze out of this one. On the left is our prediction, and perhaps desire, of how shares may move. We expect it to fill the gap, at which point we will add to the position again and take it up to our price target of $18 by year's end. Cyclicals should be strong at this time of year and of the economic cycle.
NIO - Update
22 Oct 2021 10:00 AM EDT
Status: hold
NIO broke out, but is now encountering resistance as expected. It is holding well above a high volume supply and also breakout area. Can start with small position here, stop loss below the consolidation area (about 38$) and can add in 2 increments above resistances ($42 and $46).
Is there a pay-out opportunity in Paypal?
20 Oct 2021 9:50 PM EDT
We've detected a breakout in Paypal (PYPL). Shares have been in consolidation pattern since a run-up in July, recently hitting the MA200 (red) and have acted well since then. Shares are also trying to clear a high supply volume area (270-275$). If successful, we see shares heading towards the Ichimoku cloud, also a next high volume area which is 285-290$. We have a starter position.
Status: Paypal reported to buy Pinterest. Shares dropped on news. Closed out the trade.
NIO is forming a bottom and breaking out from the lows of 2021
18 Oct 2021 3:00 PM EDT
NIO was a solid winner of 2020. However, 2021 caught a lot of traders red-handed because of its volatile swings from 30s to 60s. Shares started 2021 in the 60s, traded down to the 30s in spring, ran up to 50s in early summer, back down to 30s in the fall, and now looks like is heading up again. Let's look at the charts.
Breakout: Daily candles show it is breaking out of a downtrend since recent high. We've successfully weathered through a high volume profile area from 35-39, which hopefully will serve as a launchpad for the stock going forward.
Resistance: MA200 is a few dollars above its head (around 43$), which coincides with another high volume area. Expect some resistance here. RSI is also currently in overbought territory so we advice to buy only on pullbacks.
Ford Motors (F) is almost at our price target, start thinking about an exit
15 Oct 2021 11:00 AM EDT
We posted on 7 Oct and told you to hold onto Ford towards 16.5$. At this moment it is trading around the 16.0$ price area. While there may be some temptation to take some profits here, we think it's still too early. We would not be taking any profits until the 16.5$ price area (to be exact, we will sell some when the price hits 16.47$).
Now let's chart the path forward. As much as we love Ford, here is when we need to start being disciplined. Realistically, our price target for Ford to close out 2021 is 18$/share. We would need to significantly reduce/close our position when the stock hits that price target. See fundamental analysis here.
Another Update on Advanced Micro Devices' (AMD) Chart
15 Oct 2021 8:00 AM EDT
Shares of AMD cleared the $108.5 resistance like we alerted in the previous post on 11 Oct, and is cruising to the upside. We're providing an updated chart and trading plan.
Next week: we expect the 114.5$ (where there was a bearish reversal candle in August) to become resistance. Given the recent gains, it would be good for shares to consolidate in this area, bouncing against support at 108.5$.
Following week: after consolidation, there's earnings week. This will be a bit of a gamble, but if earning results are well-taken by the market, especially news from the Xylinx acquisition, we can see shares blow through $114.5 resistance level and head towards 122.5$ all time high.
Into year's end: traders can expect shares to hit resistance at all time high of 122.5$, consolidate at the highs and break to the upside. However, if shares fail to break out, look for the 108-110 area to be support (high volume profile).
Status: trade is still intact, but profit could be optimized if enter & exit accordingly
Update on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)' Chart
11 Oct 2021 10:00 AM EDT
We posted the chart of AMD on 7 Oct (see below) about a potential breakout. Shares have been trading sideways since, holding key levels but also looking poised for an upside soon. Here's an updated chart of AMD. Can go long above 108.5. Next level of resistance would be 114.5. On the fundamental side, we expect the Xylinx acquisition to be approved by China anytime now that we're near the end of 2021. Once approved it will be a major upside for AMD' stock.
Status: stock broke resistance, game on!
Ford Motors (F) is "cruising" to the upside, the path ahead is clear
7 Oct 2021 11:00 AM EDT
Status: active; hold it longer baby!
We posted on 28 Sep 2021 while Ford was moving up to expect some resistance at the 14.80$ level, and wait for the stock to build a handle betweel 14.0 and 14.80. Indeed, that was exactly what Ford has been doing since.
Today Ford broke out of the handle, and is now cruising to the upside. Technically, there is nothing holding it back from this price level to its most recent high of 16.5$. Therefore, we want to re-iterate this trade and assert that we will not be taking any profit until that price level.
Trading the Breakout in General Motors (GM) into its Investor Day
5 Oct 2021 3:00 PM EDT
Status: active, similar move to Ford
Ford (F) broke out, we traded it successfully, and is now continuing to hold onto the trade (we think the upside still remains). There is the brother, General Motors (GM), which usually follows how Ford moves given they are in the same sector and has a similar story. However, we didn't trade GM because at the time GM's chart didn't look as good as Ford's.
The time has come for us to take a look at the chart of General Motors. It has just broken out of a wedge pattern as drawn in the chart to the right, which indicates short-term downtrend/consolidation is over. In terms of moving averages, it just broke above the MA20 which indicates momentum is building, however is trying to tackle the MA100 and MA200 which usually present as greater resistances. Additionally, it is now in a large volume price area (volume profile on the right axis), which is the price area with a lot of shares traded, so expect profit taking here.
Once GM gets through the MA100, MA200 and the large volume profile as mentioned above, we think GM will head towards the previous high of 65$. What could be the catalyst to drive it forward? We think it is the investor's day event tomorrow (which we briefly mention here).
Trading a Potential Breakout in Boeing (BA)
29 Sep 2021 10:00 AM EDT
We've tried and failed this type of trade in Boeing many times before, but this time it's worth a try given the time of year and the 2022 outlooks for Boeing. On the fundamental side, Boeing expects B737Max re-certification in China to be over by the end of this year, which will be an appropriate catalyst for the stock to run higher.
On the technical side, Boeing is flirting with the upper side of the wedge pattern here. As a textbook trade, a breakout of this wedge would lead to further upside, potentially towards recent high and higher (see Apple in summer 2021).
2 things we need to be cautious about this trade: i) BA stock needs to clear this huge supply area (volume profile on the right of the chart). Every big node is a resistance, representing a lot of shares owned at this price and expect sellers. ii) The 100 day moving average is right above where we are, which acted as resistance last time we tried to break out (early August). BA needs to clear this line, potentially move back to re-test it, then we can be aggressive.
Status: looks like it has failed again here, but we anticipated that.
Expect some resistance here for Ford (F)
28 Sep 2021 3:00 PM EDT
Ford has broken out, the trade has worked beautifully, but now is facing some resistance (which we anticipated, see previous posts). See newly annotated chart to the left. Positions can be added over the resistance.
Status: resistance cleared
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is breaking out here
27 Sep 2021 2:20 PM EDT
We would like to direct your attention to the chart of AMD. AMD went up hugely at the end of July on earnings beat& raise and help given by Reddit crowd. Since then the stock has been consolidating.
If you draw a trendline connecting the all time high, the next attempt to move up in August, and recent days, you can create the black line as in the posted chart. Examining this line more closely, you will see that AMD broke out of this line today.
If you look at the volume profile to the right, you will see that AMD has been holding this area and is now creeping out of this high supply area (lots of shares traded here, compared to above 110$ or below 100$). We've cleared the support area and there's no resistance above.
Lastly, the major moving averages are all below the current price level (MA 20, 50, 100, 200). This is a good sign.
All in all, we think somebody knows something about AMD-Xylinx acquisition, and momentum is building in this stock.
Status: See updated chart above
Ford has broken out, stay the course (F)
27 Sep 2021 10:40 AM EDT
We identified the breakout in Ford on the daily chart in the previous post (dated 16 Sep 2021). The breakout has been confirmed and the stock has advanced about 10% since then. We think the move is not over yet, there's more to be gained here, but let's analyze the chart so logical trades can be made.
1) We've cleared the resistance trendline which has been in place since early Jun.
2) We've cleared a major supply price area (see volume bars on the right of chart).
3) We've also cleared all major moving averages (MA 20, 50, 100, 200).
4) The next level of resistance is the high volume supply area of ~15$ (see on the right).
Status: active
Ford is Breaking Out, Finally (F)
16 Sep 2021 3:00 PM EDT
You know we're biased about Ford, so you know how happy we are right now to see that Ford has finally broken out of downtrend. Good news about reservation, and ramping up of production on the F-150 Lightning today broke Ford out of the consolidation pattern it has been in since the F-150 was announced back in late May.
Technicals:
+) support, bounce off a strong volume area. Next high volume area is 15$.
+) trendline: breakout of the green upper trendline.
+) Moving Average 200: strong move up from the MA 200
Status: active
Short-term trades this week (on 1-hour timeframe): MSFT, WFC
9 Sep 2021 10:35 AM EDT
Status: closed for profit
MSFT: bought 305 Call dated 1 Oct. Watch the breakout from red line.
WFC: bought 48 Calls dated 22 Oct. Watch the breakout from consolidation after recent sell off.
Wynn Resorts may finally be out of downtrend (WYNN)
8 Sep 2021 9:00 AM EDT
Status: closed due to negative news
Technical: refer to chart and analysis on the left. Fundamentals: slowing of Covid cases in Macau, thus relaxed restrictions.
PT: 125 (high volume area)
Watching Ford for upcoming, imminent breakout (F)
8 Sep 2021 9:00 AM EDT
Status: active, see above
You know we're biased about Ford, so the word "imminent" is more about what we expect based on the fundamentals. However, the technical looks equally ready: breakout of this wedge drawn with 2 green lines. It needs to get above the middle of the Bollinger Bands, and above the red line. It is currently trading around a high-volume area, so breaking out of this would indicate upside.
Some trades to watch this week (AMD, CRM, DIS)
1 Sep 2021 10:00 AM EDT
Status: AMD still active
CRM closed with 12% gain
DIS closed with 15% gain
We're taking some light trades this week in the 3 names. Check charts to the left.
The Charts of Banks Look Stellar Right Now
(BAC, C, WFC)
25 Aug 2021 10:10 AM EDT
Status: taking longer than expected; be nimble
Check chart images to the left. Pretty patterns.
Also read analysis on direction of bond yields here.
Long trade in AMD
23 Aug 2021 10:05 AM EDT
Status: still valid, see above
AMD is in the same sector as NVDA and has also been picking up pace. You could either play both, or only focus on one name.
We want to buy shorter-dated options because of known volatility in September. It doesn't make sense yet to buy calls going out to next year, because the premiums are high, and could be lost if we see a long overdue market correction in September.
Long trade in NVDA
23 Aug 2021 10:00 AM EDT
Status: closed
We've picked up a 230 Call in NVDA dated 15 Oct 2021, based on the breakout cup and handle pattern as outlined in the daily chart to the left.
Watch the S&P500 (SPX)
19 Aug 2021 8:30 AM EDT
The SP500 showed signs of peak as we've said multiple times during the past few weeks, technically based on the Tom DeMark's counts and Larry Williams' pattern analysis. On the fundamental's front, we now have the Federal Reserve tapering this year, which is expected to slow down economic growth. Earnings will be affected, thus it is unreasonable for market to trade at all time high. A pullback in the SP500 index is therefore imminent.
The blue line is the Moving Average of 50 daily closing prices. From the beginning of this year till now, every pullback by the SP500 has been supported by the MA50. Expect some support when SPX touches this MA50 line, but once SP500 breaks this line, it indicates a shift in investor's sentiment, the likes of which we have not seen this year.
Update 23 Aug 2021: SPX indeed had support at the MA50. We only own SPX puts for insurance purposes at the moment.
Boeing Breakout Alert (BA)
11 Aug 2021 10:35 AM EDT
Status: closed, lost support of 220.
We'd like to grab your attention to Boeing. We're buying an October Call with Strike Price $250 for ~800$.
See more text by clicking here.
Walmart (WMT) is breaking out right here
5 Aug 2021 4:00 PM EDT
Status: closed with 93% gain
Oh my god! We've been waiting for this breakout since April. After months of consolidation, looks like Walmart is finally breaking out. Just put the charts of WMT and COST (Costco) together and you will see why.
Our target price is near all time high of 150 and higher. We have 2 calls dated Jan 2022, will sell 1 at 150 and let 1 ride above that for some time.
RBLX Falling Wedge
5 Aug 2021 12:20 PM EDT
Status: exited with 50% gain
We're buying a 95$ Call dated 17 Sep 2021.
Nucor Looks to be Breaking Out (NUE)
27 Jul 2021 11:10 PM EDT
Status: exit with 100% gain
Nucor looks to be breaking out of this wedge here. You can wait until it clears the dotted line area (above 100$) and then can get aggressive. We started a small position right here, and will add above 100$.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/1AiOn7Hp/
Trading Apple Again (AAPL)
26 Jul 2021 10:00 AM EDT
Status: Closed to reduce risk
Looking at the chart, we can see that Apple broke out of all time high (about $145), retested the breakout during the last 2 weeks, and now is heading higher. If Apple breaks the newly established all time high of 150, we think it can go to 165. We're opening a 150 - 160 Call Spread dated 17 Sep 2021. Risk is 1 to 3.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/d9r9P3HG/
Bullish Trade in Ford (F)
26 Jul 2021 10:00 AM EDT
Status: accept loss
We discussed this in our July 2021 investor call, so you can watch to hear the narration. Basically, Ford is at the end of a high-to-low 20% correction, sitting on this uptrend than can be drawn since March 2021. Very bullish if it bounces back, heading above 16.5 is possible.
We're opening a 14-16 Call Spread dated 17 Sep 2021. Risk is 1 to 3.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/IIYHp0bU/
Long Trade in Morgan Stanley (MS)
21 Jul 2021 10:00 AM EDT
Status: closed
We're buying 2 calls dated September 2021 with Strike Price 100$ to capture the breakout to all time high in Morgan Stanley. This is both a trade based on fundamental and technical. MS reported Q2F2021 last week and it was great. The sentiment is now shifting for MS, not a high-risk trading firm but rather a wealth management firm with stable income.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/jqmOwd3Z/
Taking a Short Position in MRNA
20 Jul 2021 2:20 PM EDT
Status: closed
We're buying a 280$ Put dated 20 August 2021 in Moderna. The reasons are laid out in the image carousel to the left.
Update: 21 Jul 2021: stock indeed dropped, we tried to sell our put option and got filled at a 100% gain, so we got out of this trade with a 100% gain in just less than 24 hours. We think MRNA will come down more, but we're happy with a 100% gain.
Circling back to TSLA Trade
12 Jul 2021 11:10 AM EDT
Previously, we identified a breakout pattern in Tesla (see post on 30 June 2021). Shares broke out of a falling wedge, consolidated after the break out but then lost the momentum. We exited as soon as the momentum was lost.
Our exit was correct, as shares came down to retest the breakout point (retest the falling wedge). However, the retest was considered successful as now TSLA is back to the level before we exited it. As a result, we feel comfortable re-entering the trade for TSLA going higher.
We're opening a 740 - 750 Call Debit Spread dated 20 Aug 2021, or can be seen here.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Xno9XMKW/
Protecting AMZN Trade From Losing if the Stock Goes Too High (AMZN)
9 Jul 2021 3:00 PM EDT
We purchased a call debit spread 3900 - 4000 dated 20 Aug 2021 to protect our Butterfly trade from losing money if AMZN goes too high. Now effectively we have a very complicated options trade in AMZN: we lose everything if AMZN is below 3700 on expiration; make the most money at 3850 and will make a little money above 4000. See more details in the Excel file attached in the previous post, we have updated that.
Watching Amazon Trade Carefully (AMZN)
6 Jul 2021 1:30 PM EDT
Status: full loss
The Amazon trade we posted a while ago is working! Shares of AMZN broke out to all time high today, up almost 4% on a day when the SP500 is seeing some weakness.
We do have to remind that the trade we took in Amazon is a butterfly call spread, which we do profit from the upside move but only a certain degree, and that's why we need to manage this trade carefully. We opened butterfly call spread dated 20 Aug 2021, with the price levels of 3650, 3850 and 4050. We make the most money if AMZN is exactly 3850 at expiration, and less money going out to either sides. To break down exact price levels and profit/loss, we're attaching an excel spreadsheet here.
Amazon Trade June-Aug 2021.xlsx
Reiterate AAPL Trade
2 Jul 2021 11:00 AM EDT
Status: closed for 50% profit at ATH
We're reiterating the AAPL Trade we posted on 15th June 2021. It has broken through the 138 resistance and should be on track to move higher.
We've sold both of our September-dated options, and roll over to a $150 Call dated January 2022.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/hvOEZsuL/
Adding to NIO Trade On the Pullback (NIO)
1 July 2021 12:50 PM EDT
Status: options are long-dated, still holding
Yesterday we sold 2 options in NIO with the anticipation that today would be a sell-the-news event in NIO. NIO reported good numbers this morning, and since the stock has run up so much before the announcement, indeed the stock is in sell-off mode today. We now have the chance to add longer-dated options than the ones we sold yesterday, for a lower price. We think this sell of can continue into tomorrow, and if NIO pulls back to the 45$ area, especially the Moving Average 20, we will continue to add to this trade. Bull thesis still intact.
TSLA Buy Alert
30 June 2021 10:20 AM EDT
Status: closed on 6 Jul, 670 price level which was held for 7 days since breakout has been broken
We think TSLA is breaking out and heading to the previous high (~800$). We are buying a 730-750 Call Debit Spread dated September this year.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/pBHx3jJ0/
Taking 2/6 Position Off the Table in NIO Trade
30 June 2021 9:50 AM EDT
The time has come, our trade in NIO has been very successful (yet not over), but since we think shares would be hitting a resistance around the 52 price area, we're taking a small position off the table, realizing a 80% gain in this option. Again, the trade in NIO is not over, but we're looking for a handle (pullback/consolidation) to form, so that we can add multiple options that are longer dated and further out the money.
Furthermore, NIO reports June 2021 deliveries tomorrow (July 1st). Since shares have been running up crazily into this news, we think whatever the number is tomorrow, it will be a sell-the-news event. This will be a perfect opportunity for us to buy the longer-dated option that we want.
Taking 1/2 Position Off the Table in AAPL Trade
30 June 2021 9:35 AM EDT
We're taking 1/2 of our position off the table in the AAPL trade, which has been working nicely. We're realizing a 20% gain in this options trade. We think AAPL will face some resistance at 138, and since our option is short-dated (until September), we want to sell it here and then into share weakness as it hits resistance, buy a longer-dated option.
Taking 1/2 Position Off the Table in AMD Trade
29 June 2021 11:05 AM EDT
We're taking 1/2 of of position off the table in the AMD trade, which was posted on 18 June. We're realizing a 30% profit in this option trade. We're leaving the remaining half in place, letting it run until our price target of 100$, since that option is dated until January of 2022.
We would like shares of AMD to pull back a bit, offering us a chance to enter yet again. We're so bullish on AMD going into the remainder of 2021.
BABA Buy Alert
28 June 2021 9:50 AM EDT
Status: closed, stock came back into channel
Following this alert we will be buying a $250 Call dated 17 September 2021. This is to capture the upside in BABA following a high-volume breakout from the downtrend that has been in place since November 2020.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/uI3P9fHP/
DIS Buy Alert
25 June 2021 9:50 AM EDT
Status: invalid
We're recommending this trade in Disney (DIS), although we're not taking this trade due to a full position. Share looks to be breaking out from a downtrend since March of this year. Heightened travel in July?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/krNGo0v5/
SFT Buy Alert
23 June 2021 10:20 AM EDT
Status: closed, looks like downtrend is not over yet
We want to alert you a potential breakout from downtrend in this stock SFT. We are buying $10 Calls with expiration November 2021.
Thursday, 24 June 2021 Daily Rundown
24 June 2021 5:55 PM EDT
AMAZON TRADE IS HERE!
AMZN Buy Alert
22 June 2021 1:20 PM EDT
Status: full loss
Bull flag (dashed lines), Cup and Handle (solid curves), you name the technicals for a break out! We think Amazon is breaking out to new highs here. The video directly above will expain this trade further and how you can capture the upside.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Oy9W44ja/
CRSP Buy Alert
21 June 2021 11:25 AM EDT
Status: closed, succeed
We're buying a CRSP $140 Call dated 20 Aug to capture the breakout from downtrend in CRSP. Relatively aggressive trade with high volatility, so proceed with caution.
AMD Buy Alert
18 June 2021 10:40 AM EDT
Status: closed with >50% gain
Couple weeks ago we opened 1 call in AMD (90$ Call January 2021) based on fundamentals rather than trading technicals. Amazingly, we realized AMD broke out of this consolidation pattern yesterday and is holding up relatively well today even though the S&P500 is down ~1%. We doubled our position yesterday on the breakout. We think if you haven't gotten in, this is the sweet spot right now, but also know the risk that there may be some downside next week in the market.
Closing Microsoft (MSFT) Trade with a 30% Gain
18 June 2021 10:30 AM EDT
Following this post we will be closing our option in MSFT, realizing a 30% gain. This is a protective measure for our account for 2 reasons. First, we've opened a lot of trades in the growth area, so we're not short of exposure here. Second, we're up against a seasonally weak period of trading, so it's good to realize gain whenever we have a decent amount. This sets us up for the next week nicely: if the growth side continues to advance, our exposures would still benefit; meanwhile, if growth slides we won't be hurt as much.
Closing Paypal (PYPL) Trade with a 15% Gain
16 June 2021 10:20 AM EDT
Following this post we will be closing our option in Paypal, realizing a 15% gain. There are 2 major reasons. First, PYPL seems to face a resistance at 278 that was tested 2 times before and now is testing that. Second, as you all know, this afternoon we will hear from the FED, an event that presents a major risk to the market, as we could go down for multiple days if the FED says something that market dislikes. Putting both reasons together, plus the fact that we currently have a 15% gain in this trade, we think it is the best move to close out the trade.
However, as you also know, once a major resistance is broken, that is a trigger to enter the trade. As a result, if the market action following the FED this afternoon is favorable for growth stocks, and indeed PYPL breaks the 278 resistance, we can re-enter the trade. We will post about that if it is the case.
AAPL Buy Alert
15 June 2021 10:00 AM EDT
Status: closed with >50% gain
We want to alert you about this formation in AAPL. We started with a $135 Call dated 17 Sep 2021, and will look to add more as the formation plays out.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5Gr91A5D/
LYFT Buy Alert
14 June 2021 12:35 EDT
Status: closed
We want to alert you that we spotted this breakout of trend in LYFT. We started with a small position and will be adding more as the stock comes down to the VWAP intraday. Target is at least 65 within the next month.
Reiterating CRM Trade (again)
14 June 2021 12:20 PM EDT
We're once again reiterating that our CRM Trade posted below is working very well. Although this may be too late to start a position, it is certainly very early to close it. We're looking for at least 255-260 in the stock price to close this position. So far we have a 10% gain.
Exiting CROX Trade with a 50% gain
14 June 2021 12:00 PM EDT
Earlier this morning we exited the CROX trade, realizing a 56% gain.
Taking Some Profits in NIO
11 June 2021 1:00 PM EDT
Wow, we swear we cannot be responsible for the 8% move up in NIO today (see our post at 9:00 AM). However, it is principle that whenever there is a big run, some profit has to be taken. We're relieving 2 out of 8 call options in NIO following this alert, realizing a 40% gain in those 2 call options.
The trade is far from over, but we're looking for lower prices to add back in some positions.
Exiting Boeing (BA) Trade
11 June 2021 10:00 AM EDT
We're closing BA trade on weakness in price action, realizing a ~40% loss in this trade.
Reiterating NIO Trade
11 June 2021 9:00 AM EDT
We're reiterating that our NIO Trade posted below is working very well. It can be started here if no position, and can also be added over the break of former high.
PYPL Buy Alert
11 June 2021 9:00 AM EDT
Status: closed to reduce risk
When the market opens we will look to buy a Call option in PYPL, to capture the breakout of this flag. We own a 280$ Call dated Aug 2020.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/eEUaBj2W/
MSFT Buy Alert
10 June 2021 10:32 PM EDT
Status: closed to reduce risk after 30% gain
We've started this MSFT trade a while ago, reluctant to share it because we're not too certain it would work, but the price action for the past few days makes it appropriate for us to share this. We own a 260 Call Dated Aug 2021. Don't be too aggressive though.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/z4KKLhZz/
Reiterating CRM Trade
10 June 2021 10:30 PM EDT
We're reiterating that our CRM Trade posted below is working very well. It can be started here if no position, and can also be added over the break of former high.
CROX Buy Alert
10 June 2021 3:50 PM EDT
Status: closed
We're buying a 110$ Call dated 16 July 2021, trying to capture the breakout from this bull flag.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Msbt7vdB/
Taking profit in XLE
10 June 2021 10:00 AM
We are selling the remaining XLE $55 20 August 2021 Call, locking in a 60% gain. After this action, we still 3 XLE $56 20 Aug 21 Call. See details here.
BA Buy Alert
8 June 2021 10:10 AM EDT
Status: Closed on weakness
We're buying a 260 Call dated 23 July 2021, trying to capture the breakout of BA from a falling wedge, then a re-test of the breakout.
Closing LLY Trade
7 June 2021 11:00 AM
We are closing our trade in LLY after a 23% gain in the LLY $210 Call August 2021. This comes after some volatility in the Healthcare sector regarding the FDA's decision on Biogen's Alzheimer treatment. Also note we own a long-term investment in LLY.
NIO Buy Alert
7 June 2021 10:10 AM
Status: Active, add over red ichimoku cloud
Although we've initiated this position a while ago, we think the chart formation is proving itself better and better. As a result, we would reiterate this trade here. We currently own multiple NIO $50 Call January 2022.
Trimming a position in XLE
7 June 2021 9:50 AM
We are trimming 1/2 of our XLE $55 20 August 2021 Call. This is just a principle move to lock in a 60% gain. After this action, we still own 1 XLE $55 20 August 2021 Call, and 3 XLE $56 20 Aug 21 Call. See details here.
XLE Buy Alert
2 June 2021 8:55 EDT
Status: Closed on breakdown through 55$ level
We are opening some XLE $55 and $56 Calls dated 20 August 2021 on this cup and handle breakout trade on the daily chart of XLE. The tailwinds of this sector are also supportive of this trade, as economic recovery is still on a fast-moving pace.
CRM Buy Alert
28 May 2021 3:10 PM EDT
Status: Active, add over previous high
We are opening a CRM $250 Call dated 20 August 2021 based on this bull flag pattern. We would like to think beaten-down tech stocks should finally get a move now after consolidating for almost 9 months, especially now that the market is starting to forgive inflationary pressures and start talking about reopening peak.
Note:
Our swing trade alerts prior to June 2021 would not be posted here.
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