WIC Portfolio Line-Up Against 2022: What Players Do You Pick For Your Team?
By Mike Le
By Mike Le
2022 is going to be a brutal investing season. If you think about this economic cycle as a soccer tournament, we've just advanced through the rather-easy group stage with accommodative monetary and fiscal stimulus. We're now in the 1/16 knockout stage, mid-cycle, with lots of uncertainties and challenges when monetary policy regulated by the Federal Reserve will get harder and there are concerns about slowing down of the economy.
At WIC, we structure our portfolio according to our 6-month forward worldview, or in soccer terms, we pick our squad to face a very tough opponent in the knock-out stage. Let's see what our portfolio line-up looks like.
Overall Shape: 3-4-3
We're playing an overall attacking formation. Even though we're mid-cycle and there are concerns about monetary policy slowing down the economy, we believe the economy is very strong such that it can overcome interest-rate hikes.
Attack:
Striker - Ford Motors (F): We are going with a front-three line up, with Ford being front and center. Striker is the most important position for the team with the main responsibility of bringing in goals. That's what we believe Ford will be able to do for the portfolio in 2022.
Left Wing - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): left-wing attacker plays an important role in providing assists for the striker, or also scoring goals themselves. I believe AMD fits very well in this position. Semiconductors fuel the economy, and AMD's growth can substantially drive the portfolio forward. Semiconductors play a crucial part for autos, therefore placing AMD here will provide assists for Ford.
Right Wing - Meta (FB): Imagination is important in this position. That's why we place the confidence in Meta (formerly Facebook), with their ability to continue to expand their business beyond imagination. In 2022, we will see new developments and increased interests in the "metaverse" concept, allowing FB to draw attention from the market. Additionally, FB will interact with the left wing (AMD), as semiconductors are an important infrastructural component of the metaverse.
Midfield:
Center Midfielder - Morgan Stanley (MS): we will play with 2 center midfielders and this one is defensive-minded. Morgan Stanley is our top pick for this position because of their business model. They are a stable revenue-generating machine with top-line growth, which we believe will continue to do well and return attractive dividends to our portfolio.
Center Midfielder - Wells Fargo (WFC): this center midfielder is attacking-minded because it is sensitive to interest rates and the well-being of the economy. Money-center banks like Wells Fargo make more money when interest rates rise, but there are concerns that the rise of interest rates will slow down lending activities. However, our tactic is that the economy will remain strong despite rate hikes, both are great catalysts for WFC to be the star of the portfolio.
Right Midfielder - Boeing (BA): we're placing our bets on the ability of Boeing to lift its wings (literally and figuratively). The return of Boeing 737Max in China and clearance of B787 deliveries will return cash flows to Boeing. Strong performance of Boeing will power our team on the right wing. Also a fun point, we're placing Boeing on the right wing to interact with Meta at the front. This is not by random, because Boeing recently stated their intentions to "build airplanes in the metaverse."
Left Midfielder - Disney (DIS): on the other side, we're putting our faith in Disney. We need Disney to find growth opportunities in Disney+ to deliver strong 2022 performance.
Defense: Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Eli Lilly (LLY):
In a 3-4-3 formation, the back 3 need to play at high concentration to defend against counter-attacks from the opponent, but also need to go forward to help center midfielders dictate the game while in possession. Apple and Microsoft fit these descriptions well. They are blue-chip large-cap companies with tremendous growth (attack), and because of the scale of their business, they are often deferred to as defensive plays when there are uncertainties about the economy (defense).
In the heart of our defense is Eli Lilly. To us, this is the best-of-breed drug developer and manufacturer in the healthcare sector that is always deferred to when there are uncertainties. Lilly's rich product lines featuring Covid antibody, insulin and diabetes treatments can secure them a stable earnings stream; their product sales are unaffected by economic cycles (defensive). Additionally, their large investment in the development of an Alzheimer treatment will become fruitful in 2022, once the FDA approves Donanemab this will be one sharp growth pipeline for Lilly (attack).
Goalkeeper: Kinder Morgan (KMI)
This energy pipeline operator offers the most reliable protection for our team. Pipeline operators are like operators of toll roads, they earn money when their infrastructure is used. Being the largest energy pipeline operator in the US, almost every transport of energy occurs through Kinder Morgan's pipelines. Most importantly, they offer a very large but stable dividend of 6%, which currently is almost 4 times that of the 10-year treasury yield, making this name a top pick for any portfolio that seeks stable and reliable income.