What we are looking at today:

• Feb 2022 CPI 7.9%, hotter than last month but not hotter than expected. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said expect inflation to stay high for most of this year. 

• Probability of recession coming next year is 25-35% based on models that uses yield curve (10 year - 2 year spread) data. "R" word is just starting to be thrown around.

• Oil talks with Iran break down but Vladimir Putin says there are some “positive shifts” in ceasefire talks with Ukraine. Stock futures were up ahead of Friday’s opening bell. 

• West Texas crude up a tad, would have expected more. Contracts are in the steepest backwardation ever — meaning the spot prices at maturity are way higher than futures prices. Traders are taking this as the ultimate sell sign. 

• Oracle (ORCL) reported a disappointing quarter last night: Revenues were in line but earnings of $1.13 a share missed Street consensus of $1.18. Piper Sandler goes to sell from hold. Even though different fundamentally but we like Cisco (CSCO) as a GARP name - Growth At A Reasonable Price.

• Wells Fargo starts Deere (DE) with a buy rating and initiates Caterpillar (CAT) with a hold.

• Rivian (RIVN) could have made 50,000 electric vehicles but supply-chain problems caused it to make only 25,000 ... another disappointing EV investment. Sees EBITDA loss of $4.75 billion for 2022. Ford trades at similar market cap, but sees EBITDA positive 10 billion. 

• UBS with big note out about 3M (MMM): Analyst says company is being “de-rated”  because of Combat Arm Earplug litigation and PFAS contamination. Price target slashed to $118 from $168.

• DocuSign (DOCU) disaster — multiple PT cuts, Oppenheimer downgrades to hold from buy ... company expects full-year revenue to be between $2.47 billion to $2.48 billion versus $2.61 expected by analysts.

• Ulta Beauty (ULTA) still delivering numbers: fourth-quarter EPS $5.41 versus consensus $4.58; sees fiscal year 2022 EPS $18.20 to $18.70 versus consensus $17.84 ... supply-chain costs rising faster than they can raise prices

• Ventas (VTR) upgraded to buy from hold at Bank of American, says senior growth housing is recovering.

• JPMorgan starts Beauty Health (SKIN) - stock in our watchlist.

• Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood is still buying Joby Aviation (JOBY) - would you look at the chart of this stock? what a disaster!