Thursday, 3 March 2022 Morning Thoughts: Ford Splits, Oil Turns Around, Ukraine War Not Getting Any Better
Thursday, 3 Mar 2022 10:00 AM
By Mike Le
Thursday, 3 Mar 2022 10:00 AM
By Mike Le
Moving forward, we will slightly change our content delivery to subscribers. Rather than writing one analysis of one topic per day (for example, Tuesday we wrote about banks and Wednesday we wrote about semiconductors), we will shift towards i) providing daily overall thoughts on the market and ii) reduce the frequency of single-topic analysis posts. The purpose of i) providing quick thoughts on the market, is to provide subscribers an overview of the macroeconomic situation, what conversations are ongoing in the market, and we will try to cite a lot of news articles for subscribers to follow up with whatever topic they are interested in. The purpose of ii) is so that our analyses can be written in greater details, higher quality.
So let's get started with today's thoughts/ what's happening:
After "promise" from Fed Chair Powell yesterday to be nimble in raising interest rates, lots of analysts are "recommending" US Equities now, especially tech stocks, citing P/E valuation has come down enough.
Oil turning around after hitting multi-year highs on news of potential Iran deal. Oil down is a sight of relief for stocks because it alleviates the inflationary pressure on the Fed's monetary policy, but more importantly, reduces costs for industrial companies. Airline stocks go up with lower oil price.
Read the transcript of the call between Putin and Macron. No sign of Putin backing down in Ukraine. Some says he's backed into a corner, he will have to intensify the war (he can) or else he will lose face to his own government.
Ford (F) is splitting into two teams: internal combustion engine (ICE) business and electric vehicle (EV). When ICE can help EV on the basics, it will ... But EV will be run by Doug Field, previously in charge of Apple (AAPL) car and Tesla (TSLA) who helped launch the Model 3. He will be doing the Model e business for Ford and it will be Ford’s attempt to challenge Tesla in the U.S. in just a couple of years time. He has to top 352,000 and Jim Farley is confident with this new split he will be able to. Company expects 2 million EV cars annually by 2026. Detailed analysis to come out this Friday.
Kroger (KGR), Nordstrom (JWN), Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT) are the big retailers who have reported better-than-expected earnings reports, yet these numbers have not meant much on their stocks because of inflation. Costco (COST) which we own reports tonight. Any news about special dividend or raise of membership price could send the stock back up to ATH.