Here's Our November and Post-Q3 Earnings Season Rapid-Fire Update On All Portfolio Stocks
Saturday, 13 Nov 2022
Saturday, 13 Nov 2022
With the bulk of earnings season mostly over, especially for most portfolio holdings, we would like to provide a rapid-fire update on all the stocks.
Apple (AAPL) — (We currently do not own Apple but some of our clients do) There are some supply chain worries that can affect earnings. However we believe demand remains strong.
AbbVie (ABBV) — Earnings Report - Following the miss, which has occured multiple times, we decided to exit this stock, as the healthcare sector have strongly outperformed the S&P500 this year and we think it may be time people rotate out of this sector into some risk pockets in the market.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) — Earnings Report - Stock has been showing some signs of life again, after going through a multiple compression and re-rating period due to earnings cuts. However we believe we're closer to the end of this PC-chip glut than we are at the end for AMD.
Costco Wholesale (COST) — The company has not reported quarterly results yet, but we continue to own this name as a favorite shopping place for America. Costco's customers are towards the higher end on the income spectrum, which means membership fees can be relatively stable even in an economic downturn. The tailwind now can be that with inflation coming down, Costco can expand its margins.
Salesforce (CRM) — Company also has not reported quarterly results yet. We see no edge to buy here, but can use this name as a source of funds if shares go higher.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) — Cisco reports next week and we think the company could have very strong earnings as it can convert backlogs into revenues.
Coterra Energy (CTRA) — Earnings Report - We continue to opportunistically add to this name as Europe heads into Winter season. We are very happy with the 8+% dividend yield.
Danaher (DHR) — Earnings Report - This is a company that we buy opportunistically without worrying about its growth future. The life science research is very recession-resistant, and now that Covid-related comparisons have lapped, we're very optimistic in this name.
Walt Disney (DIS) — Earnings Report - They just gave us a horrendous quarter as Direct-to-Consumer (streaming) posted bigger than expected losses. However, CEO said this shoud be the inflection point for costs. Furthermore, shares appear to show strong support at the $90 level.
Ford Motor (F) — Earnings Report - Company surprisingly posted a strong quarter and increased cash flow guidance. This alleviates any concerns about the auto industry heading into a recession. Another key point that we really love from management was their decision to pull investments from self-driving research, which is an investment into the future, to focus on matters of immediate relevance. This may sound counter-intuitive but in this tight-money market, near-term profitability is at the center of attention for companies.
Alphabet (GOOGL) — Earnings Report - Recent quarter shows that this type of business is not recession-resistant, making investors question the multiple the market had placed on the stock. However, multiples have compressed to attractive level. If management can effectively cut costs through slowdown in hiring and delaying research and development, we believe shares can find footings here.
Halliburton (HAL) — Earnings Report - Shares have had a huge move but we think it can take out 2022's high.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) — Earnings Report - We continue to like J&J as the company makes progress on its planned breakup, which will result in two separate publicly traded firms. One will be focused on consumer products, the other will consist of the company’s pharmaceutical and medical technology units.
Eli Lilly (LLY) — Earnings Report - This has been the best stock for us in 2022. It is understandable that shares are undergoing some pressure as there is a rotation out of the healthcare sector for some risk appetite. However we will be opportunistically building a big position heading into 2023, as the company's Alzheimer drug and Diabetes/Weight loss drug continue to make good progress.
Meta Platforms (META) — Following a horrendous quarter, we exited this position with a huge loss.
Morgan Stanley (MS) — Earnings Report - The bank's strong management, performance at a reasonable valuation are reasons why shares are only down 10% ytd compared to 15% for the S&P500. We continue to own shares at ~3 yield here, but would not advise clients to gobble up shares, as we think lower prices could be in the cards.
Microsoft (MSFT) — Earnings Report - We are willing to be patient with Mr. Softy here, however, we would not advise buying shares here because we believe lower prices will come cards.
Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) — Earnings Report - The company is very well run and disciplined. Now that the mid-term election is over and the strategic petroleum reserve has been drained out, we expect oil prices to go up from here.
Wells Fargo (WFC) — Earnings Report - Our thesis is playing out ok so far this year, with shares of this major bank being flat on the year compared to the S&P500 is down 15%. However, as with shares of Morgan Stanley, we'd advise clients to tread lightly.