Well, really, the Ford story is no longer about gas, but about electrification. 

In this segment, we want to solely use technical analysis to predict the price movement of Ford for the next 6 months. This is yet another example of our investing style, which is to actively manage our positions rather than a buy-and-hold forever approach.   

Line Chart with Repeated Up-And-Down Patterns

This is the chart of Ford (F) dated back to October of 2020. The black squiggly line is the price movement of the stock. 

If we start at the low of October 2020, and try to draw an upward trendline that attempts to connect as many bottoms as possible, we get the blue line that we've drawn on the chart. We call that the bottom trendline of the price movement (in blue).

Now let's follow what the stock does every time it approaches or goes away from the trendline.

First, from October to December of 2020, there was a 45% move up away from the trendline (first green arrow). This was followed by a 10% pullback towards the trendline.

As the stock approaches the trendline, it makes a 58% move to the upside (topped in March 2021). What followed this move up? A 15% decline to the trendline.

What happens in May of 2021 as the stock approaches the trendline? A 41% move to the upside. This was once again followed by a 20% pullback towards the trendline.

The stock was at the trendline in September of 2021. It has since then made a 50% move to the upside, which is where we are at today.

Candlestick Chart

What will happen next?

If history repeats itself for the 4th time, we believe Ford should see a 10-20% decline to the trendline. From which price the decline will start? We think 19$. When will the decline take place? We are unable to predict when and for how long this decline will take place. However, we can try to predict where (the price) it will likely go to.

A pullback of F shares towards the trendline, if occurs early 2022, would take the price back to about 15-16$. In fact, we expect there to be support (buying pressure here), as this is a high volume profile area (see volume profile bars on the right of the above chart). Additionally, this price level would likely be where the 200-day moving average (in red) will end up (MA200 is usually expected to be a strong support).

Bottom line, we want to see shares of Ford (F) advance within the next few weeks towards the $19 area. From here, we want to see shares pull back towards 15-16$.