We're Taking A Look At 2011 To Navigate The Upcoming Debt-Ceiling Issue
Wednesday, 3 May 2023 10:00 AM
Wednesday, 3 May 2023 10:00 AM
The looming U.S. debt-ceiling crisis has ignited a new wave of uncertainty in the market this week, with all three major benchmarks under pressure Tuesday. But the debt standoff of 2011 offers some lessons for investors who are wiling to take the long view amid all the volatility.
Wall Street’s heightened focus on the debt ceiling comes after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday warned the U.S. may exhaust its ability to meet its borrowing obligations as early as June 1 — at least a month in advance of predictions by many Wall Street economists.
The upcoming volatility is more than just the potential for the U.S. to hit the debt ceiling in a month. In the very near term, investors are preparing for the Federal Reserve’s latest interest-rate decision Wednesday – widely expected to be a quarter-percentage-point hike – and looking for clues about the central bank’s future policy path. Investors also remain concerned about the health of the banking sector and the broader U.S. economy ahead of the Labor Department’s closely-watched monthly jobs report on Friday. First-quarter earnings season, meanwhile, is in full swing with Apple (APPL) — one of the world’s largest companies by market capitalization — reporting on Thursday, with the results considered an important bellwether for the state of the economy.
On the political front, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., accepted an invitation to meet with President Joe Biden and other congressional leaders on May 9 in an effort to hash out a compromise on raising the debt ceiling, NBC News reported Tuesday. House Republicans have maintained that any increase to the debt limit should be tied to spending cuts, while Biden and the Democrats have argued that paying the country’s bills should not be dictated by an agreement to reduce the country’s deficit.
The debt-ceiling crisis of 2011 was characterized by similar political dynamics. The protracted fight ultimately ended in an agreement in early August of that year, but it was a choppy summertime ride for investors. The S&P 500 declined about 17% over a stretch beginning in late July to mid-August, during which Standard & Poor’s took the unprecedented step of downgrading the United States’ AAA credit rating. Nonetheless, stocks mounted a recovery in the fall of 2011, with the S&P 500 finishing the year essentially flat. And, ultimately, that crisis proved to be a great buying window for long-term investors who were willing to wait out the uncertainty.
We expect the current crisis to ultimately yield a similar result — both in terms of a political resolution and a buying opportunity in the interim. In preparation, we have been aggressively increasing our cash reserve by both trimming back our portfolio as well as attracting new investments. We look forward to a buying opportunity comes the end of May as the debt-ceiling crisis comes into full attention, as well as in June-July period as the economy focuses on whether we hit a recession.