Eli Lilly's Plan For Growth Pushed The Stock To Start 2024 With An All Time High (LLY)
Wednesday, 10 Jan 2024 10:00 AM
Wednesday, 10 Jan 2024 10:00 AM
Eli Lilly’s presentation Tuesday evening at the influential JPMorgan Healthcare Conference was light on near-term financial updates, as expected, but heavy on discussion about the world’s most valuable drugmaker’s plans to sustain its recent run of successes well into the future. Investors liked what they heard and sent Lilly shares to an all-time high Wednesday.
Eli Lilly intends to keep spending heavily, but wisely, on research and development in the coming years, CEO Dave Ricks said after the closing Tuesday, amid what Wall Street widely expects will be a period of blistering topline revenue growth fueled by tirzepatide — the active ingredient in its recently approved anti-obesity drug Zepbound and its 2022-cleared Mounjaro type-2 diabetes treatment.
Shares of Lilly hit a record intraday high during Wednesday’s trading, above $637 each, before giving back some of the gains. Lilly, the eighth-most valuable company in the S&P 500 briefly swelled to a market value of more than $600 billion for the first time ever.
To help build a stellar drug pipeline that also includes next-generation obesity drugs and Alzheimer’s therapies, Eli Lilly has almost doubled its spending on research and development since 2018, reaching a projected $9 billion last year for a company expecting to generate $33.7 billion in revenue.
“Our ambition is to grow [R&D] the way we have” but to do it in a deft way that yields new product breakthroughs, Ricks said. The focus will be on “a few big ideas” for patients with currently unmet needs, he said. “It seems unlikely we’re going to be able to grow rapidly by pursuing a lot of small ideas.”
Ricks said that continuing to spend on R&D, which includes clinical trial costs, is necessary for Lilly to maintain the robust sales growth investors have come to expect from the company. Wall Street sees Eli Lilly’s revenue soaring to more than $66 billion in 2028, due in large part to Mounjaro and Zepbound.
“If we pick our heads up in a few years and we’ve doubled Lilly R&D — and it’s kept pace with roughly 24%, 25% of sales right now — I think investors should be excited about future growth,” Ricks said. “If we’ve not doubled [R&D], we’ll return it to shareholders responsibly. Dividend it out, buy back shares, maybe do smart M&A. But that’s not the base scenario.”
Ricks did not offer investors too many specifics around Eli Lilly’s financial expectations for 2024. Those will come in a few weeks when the company reports fourth-quarter earnings. But he stressed that executing product launches is his No. 1 priority this year. The most notable new product is Zepbound, which received U.S. regulatory approval in November and hit pharmacy shelves last month.
Insurance coverage for obesity drugs like Zepbound — crucial to reaching their commercial potential — has been increasing and will continue to do so over time, Ricks said. Late-stage studies examining Zepbound’s ability to treat sleep apnea and reduce the risk of heart failure, which are expected to be complete in 2024, should help the reimbursement case, Ricks said. “I think the proof points will keep stacking up.”
Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy, which was approved by U.S. regulators in 2021, is the main rival for Zepbound in weight loss. In type-2 diabetes, Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic, cleared in 2017, competes with Lilly’s Mounjaro. All four belong to a broader class of drugs known as GLP-1s, which improve blood-sugar control and effectively reduce appetite, helping patients lose weight. Ricks complemented the work Novo Nordisk has been doing to get GLP-1s covered for obesity, but suggested having a second company operating in the market could further the process along. “Here, I think, two is better than one,” he said.
Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have both been investing heavily to expand GLP-1 manufacturing capacity, but it’s an expensive, multiyear process due to the complex nature of making these injectable drugs. Asked during Tuesday’s presentation when “capacity won’t be the rate limiter for the category,” Ricks responded by saying, “not anytime soon.”
“I don’t say that in a negative way. I think that speaks to the incredible opportunity here,” Ricks said, arguing Lilly’s experimental oral GLP-1 orforglipron would, if approved, help meet that demand. Orforglipron entered late-stage trials in 2023, so it likely be multiple years before it’s on the market. An oral version of Novo’s Ozempic has already approved to treat type-2 diabetes, while a pill version of Wegovy has completed a late-stage study.
Ricks reaffirmed Eli Lilly’s expectation that its Alzheimer’s treatment donanemab will receive Food and Drug Administration clearance in the first quarter of 2024. After Zepbound, donanemab would be Lilly’s second most important new product for the year ahead. The company has spent decades and billions of dollars trying to develop a drug that successfully slows the progression of the memory-robbing disease.
“I think the donanemab economic story will be partly treatment, but the bigger upside actually is prevention,” Ricks said, noting that Eli Lilly’s prevention study is underway. It’s expected to be completed in 2027.
Eli Lilly & Co. Mounjaro brand tirzepatide medication arranged at a pharmacy in Provo, Utah, US, on Monday, Nov. 27, 2023.